The results are primarily driven by a collapse in the Conservative vote rather than a surge in Labour’s. In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labor vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent.
Modeling shows that 80 per cent of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019, but would not do so if an election was held tomorrow, were Leave voters in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
The collapse of the Conservative vote was driven by discontent on policy issues including illegal migration, and the unpopularity of Mr Sunak.
Further details of the poll, published by The Telegraph on Sunday, will show that the Conservatives can still recover – but only if a different approach is pursued.
The results forecast an election night packed with “Portillo moments”, when big beasts lost their seats in the way of Michael Portillo, then a Tory high-flyer, unexpectedly did in 1997.
In 1997, seven Tory Cabinet ministers lost their seats. This year, the number is predicted to be 11. Mr Hunt is on course to lose Godalming and Ash, the new seat for which he has been selected, to the Liberal Democrats.
Penny Mordaunt, a former Conservative leadership contender and the Leader of the House, is set to lose Portsmouth North to Labour, despite winning with a 15,000 majority in 2019.